Hurricane Forecast Revised Again, To “Extremely Active”
A revised hurricane outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an “extremely active” hurricane season, possibly requiring the National Hurricane Center to use every name on its existing list for 2020. NOAA is predicting up to 25 named storms, the most ever predicted in a seasonal forecast. Computer model guidance suggests that an overlap between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Kelvin wave will cause what meteorologists call “constructive interference,” raising the likelihood of more storm activity. Furthermore, warmer ocean temperatures support wetter and more intense storms while facilitating rapid intensification.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team project that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will have 24 named storms—up from 20 in the previous forecast. The 24 named storms include the storms that have already formed. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.