Another Active Hurricane Season?
Dr. Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University (CSU) specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, isn’t letting the fact that the 2020 hurricane season ended just days ago deter him from looking ahead.
Colorado State University’s first outlook on the 2021 hurricane season says we might be in for another active year. The early outlook, led by Klotzbach, was released on December 10 and says there is about a six in ten chance of another active hurricane season ahead.
While it is way too early to forecast the number of tropical storms and hurricanes, climatologists are able to look at some of the drivers that may aid or hinder hurricane activity next summer and fall. Two such drivers that Dr. Klotzbach says are key to figuring out how busy next season will be are both related to water – the status of El Niño Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) and how water temperatures in the northern Atlantic change in the next year.
The first quantitative forecast for 2021 will be issued by CSU on Thursday, April 8.